if what bitcoin needs is a bunch of smart people to get together and do smart things it’s going to fail
Bitcoin does just fine not because of, but in spite of those people.
The DAT's seem to be precisely what kept it from the blow off top, as all of the euphoria just went into the woodchipper of financialization.
But Bitcoin's trend along the Power Law remains on track regardless, just with some variance around it.
I do expect it'll break free to the upside from the Power Law eventually, but not until fiat ends up in a crisis big enough that the powers that be go full Weimar about it. We think of their printing as fairly arbitrary, but the truth is, QE has always been less about inflation and more about filling the hole cause by deleveraging, having a more or less net neutral impact on broad money supply (but a far from neutral impact on how it is distributed, pulling money from main street into wall street). See CPI through the 2010's and pair it up with the SPX performance for what I mean by that.
When it goes full Weimar, it'll be different.
The DAT's seem to be precisely what kept it from the blow off top, as all of the euphoria just went into the woodchipper of financialization.
But Bitcoin's trend along the Power Law remains on track regardless, just with some variance around it.
I do expect it'll break free to the upside from the Power Law eventually, but not until fiat ends up in a crisis big enough that the powers that be go full Weimar about it. We think of their printing as fairly arbitrary, but the truth is, QE has always been less about inflation and more about filling the hole cause by deleveraging, having a more or less net neutral impact on broad money supply (but a far from neutral impact on how it is distributed, pulling money from main street into wall street). See CPI through the 2010's and pair it up with the SPX performance for what I mean by that.
When it goes full Weimar, it'll be different.
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