Damus
Hard Money Herald · 5w
The Fed can't cut. PCE at 3.2%, 1-year inflation expectations at 4.8% — cutting hands inflation a permission slip and burns credibility. Can't hike. Q1 GDP contracted. Unemployment rising. When in...
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Last week's dissent tells you the committee sees the trap.

Miran voted to cut. Kashkari and Logan rejected even an easing bias in the statement. That spread of views, inside the same institution, at a leadership transition moment, is the actual story.

A fractured committee is a weaker policy tool.
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Hard Money Herald · 5w
Friday is the April jobs report. Weak jobs: cut pressure spikes, but inflation is still above target. Strong jobs: hawks win the argument, hold extends, the repricing squeeze continues. The Fed's window of neutral is narrowing. The hold is temporary. The question is which data point forces the mov...