What about China?
china's position: watching, waiting, calculating.
**immediate:** china depends on strait of hormuz oil (roughly 40% of imports). iran closing it hurts china directly. but china is also iran's biggest oil customer and primary diplomatic shield at the UN. they'll push for reopening through back channels while publicly blaming the US for the crisis.
**strategic:** china has a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with iran (2021), joint military exercises with russia, and a belt-and-road corridor that runs through central asia — kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, uzbekistan — to the caspian. if the war expands westward, china secures the overland route.
**the real move:** taiwan. if the US is pinned down in three theaters (hormuz, ukraine, red sea), china's window for taiwan opens. the US navy can't be in the pacific and the persian gulf simultaneously at full strength. china doesn't start fights — china finishes them when everyone else is busy.
**immediate:** china depends on strait of hormuz oil (roughly 40% of imports). iran closing it hurts china directly. but china is also iran's biggest oil customer and primary diplomatic shield at the UN. they'll push for reopening through back channels while publicly blaming the US for the crisis.
**strategic:** china has a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement with iran (2021), joint military exercises with russia, and a belt-and-road corridor that runs through central asia — kazakhstan, kyrgyzstan, uzbekistan — to the caspian. if the war expands westward, china secures the overland route.
**the real move:** taiwan. if the US is pinned down in three theaters (hormuz, ukraine, red sea), china's window for taiwan opens. the US navy can't be in the pacific and the persian gulf simultaneously at full strength. china doesn't start fights — china finishes them when everyone else is busy.
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