"If one is sophisticated enough to call the top vs the bottom of course"

I'm certainly not sophisticated enough, I go with the value of the bitcoin at the time of four year drawdown of expenses.

My strategy is based on an assumption bitcoin will produce an AAR/CAGR of a minimum 20% for the foreseeable future. (if it can't do that, maybe it's not what we think it is) time will tell, but we have to back our own judgement.

Another assumption I hold is bitcoin may dip 80%, (it might, who knows)

Say my annual expenses are $50k yr, so over 4 years $200k which I need to draw down in advance.

I'll be conservative with a 10% buffer on the 80%, so my stack needs to reach a value of $2M

So my strategy is not about tops or bottoms, but the value in fiat of the stack.

If I draw down 10% and my balance CONTINUES to gain 20% AAR/CAGR I could live forever and never run out of money.

There are tweaks for assumed inflation going forward and emergency drawdowns that I have in my model.

I'd be happy to take this chance.

I just don't understand how a strategy based on tops and bottoms can be operated with confidence with such a volatile asset. But I'm willing to listen to any explanation of a logical strategy based on price.

"I also like the idea of simply DCA out of Bitcoin"

I've done a lot of back testing on this and my tests indicate dca'ng out expenses over 4 years would leave me with considerably less bitcoin than assessing 4 years expenses and drawing down the whole 4 year year expenses.

I don't set price targets, I plan on dates, I've done back testing on the difference and it's difficult to plan on prices when drawing down expenses. Prices have a habit of destroying strategies. IMHO

*October 2025

Do you actually take profits, as in trading, or do you  draw down living expenses following a strategic financial strategy?

For example, my plan is

1. In October 2024 I will calculate and drawdown 4 years of living expenses and pay appropriate taxes.

2. If any of the big four banks offer collateralised lending I will borrow 4 years expenses.


3. If a private lender wishes to lend on terms I'm happy with, I'll borrow 4 years expenses.

Number 3 is my preferred option.

From your post it sounds like your plan is to take profits at a time you judge to be opportune. Would you care to divulge what your plan is for those profits, if they are not for living expenses, do you plan holding them in cash or use some other asset.?

Based on history, this cycles ATH will be reached in 629 days time on 10-10-2025 when the BTC price will be the current price of (41,735 x 6.97) = $290,896

Merry Christmas to you and yours comrade.

The whole world will dive into the world of Nostr – it's the open-source social network where creativity thrives, privacy is respected, and community is the code.

Absolutely agree Jeff. Truth has a powerful impact, and the company of high-integrity individuals amplifies its strength. Wishing you a Merry Christmas and a prosperous 2024 filled with genuine connections and positive change. Thanks for passing on all your thoughts and knowledge.

Nostr has transformed social media into a space for genuine human connections. I've built friendships with people I may have never met otherwise, united by shared interests and values. #HumanConnections #NostrFriends

// #hodloncomrades don't trade #bitcoin

$note

Hello World

Five year bitcoin gains.

Today's date: 23-12-2023
Date 5 years ago: 23-12-2018
Today's bitcoin price: $43,620
Five years ago bitcoin price: $4,008
Total gain: $39,613
CAGR: 61.2%

#hodloncomrades don't trade #bitcoin

#BTC #ATH #Bitcoin #halving #price