Good Life Seek on nostr

Check out this article ( https://controlplanecapital.com/p/what-made-me-sell-most-of-my-bitcoin ). Might help you connect some of the remaining dots.

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek 1764658881

Great article. Sadly, I find it hard to disagree.

Toxic Bitcoiner · 18w

Stay humble and stack sats took a major hit this last year. The 4 year CAGR is a measly 10.4%, below the rate of fiat money debasement. Barely any returns, barely any merchant adoption for MoE. What r...

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek 1764617935

Unfortunately, looks like you are right.

At least, as minimum, I hope Bitcoin will track the money printing and long term hold value in the real terms, purchasing power.

Because 21 million on one hand and infinite printing on the other.

So, even if no new capital flows into Bitcoin, even if no increased adoption, unless there is some disaster, Bitcoin should work as digital gold.

And I hope there will be some catalyst for adoption, like you say.

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Good Life Seek

@Good Life Seek 1761415856

I see a lot of #bitcoin price predictions. $200K, $1 million, $10 million, etc.

I think the truth is: WE DON'T KNOW.

And, even if we knew, say it will be $1 million in 10 years, we would NOT KNOW how much this will be due to inflation (money printing, 1 BTC having THE SAME purchasing power as 1 BTC today) or real purchasing power of 1 BTC growth (e.g. thanks to more adoption, capital inflows, halving impact).

While I continue to think we DON'T KNOW, I think we CAN run different scenarios.

Put in some guesstimates on money supply growth, halving impact, capital inflow impact, economic crises, market crashes (how often they will happen) and see how many times the real (inflation adjusted) price was, say 2x in 20 years (spoiler alert: around 50% of simulations with conservative parameters)

If you want to play with it, the model is here
https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx

Feedback welcome. Not financial advice, but tool for thinking. AI-assisted generation. Enjoy.

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Carl B Menger · 23w

Global money supply keeps printing one all time high after the other. But only 21 million #Bitcoin forever. Just do the math. https://image.nostr.build/65e11f54babb71a36dbe4e4f3a4f9bae3f14a8cd8ed2813...

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek 1761414885

I built (with AI ;-) a model where you can enter a year on year global money supply growth (percent), and inflation, and it will estimate #Bitcoin price in nominal and inflation adjusted USD (a deterministic path)

and it will run 200 Monte Carlo scenarios, including shocks (you can edit a parameter how often they happen and how severe) and then it will spit not just one price prediction (impossible and useless, I think),

but percentiles: in how many simulation scenarios (e.g. 50%, 75%, 90%) the price was above or below a given value (nominal and real). What do you think?

(it considers halving, adoptions and capital inflow yearly diminishing positive impact, my default parameters are conservative)

https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek · 23w

I built a simple Bitcoin projection model in that tries to answer a key question: What happens to Bitcoin’s value in real terms if governments keep printing money? It is not intended to predict a specific price point. Look at the percentiles, e.g. in 20 years, in 50% simulate Show more

Good Life Seek

@Good Life Seek 1761414467

I built a simple Bitcoin projection model in that tries to answer a key question:

What happens to Bitcoin’s value in real terms if governments keep printing money?

It is not intended to predict a specific price point. Look at the percentiles, e.g. in 20 years, in 50% simulated scenarios (which included shocks, inflation, money printing, halving impact, some but diminishing boost from adoption and capital inflow, etc.) the price in inflation adjusted USD is... look at it yourself.

And you can tweak any parameters.

The model takes Global M2 growth (money supply), adds a conservative adoption boost, a halving cycle effect, and then runs Monte Carlo shocks to simulate crises (reflecting the real world where we will have wars, economic crises, etc.)

It outputs both nominal BTCUSD price and real price (adjusted for inflation / purchasing power).

The interesting insight: in high-monetization scenarios, Bitcoin’s nominal price skyrockets… Translation: if you see $10M BTC, it may just mean a $200 loaf of bread. Real long-term upside comes only from adoption/capital inflows beyond money printing.

Model file https://white-historic-booby-179.mypinata.cloud/ipfs/bafkreigvidjuhp2qoptsmszeasdg2hmvcc4lrmhkkixq6utf6reuvdzp3y/bitcoin_price_model_scenarios.xlsx

Use it, tweak it, or share feedback.
This is not financial advice — just a tool for thinking.
AI-assisted work.

jack mallers · 24w

appreciate it man. i started Strike for us. for Bitcoiners. for 13 years now i have been one of a growing group of people trying to will this gift to changing the world. that hasn’t changed and nev...

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek 1760895769

I appreciate it
Thank you

Clayton · 24w

But if someone with unlimited money (a country like USA or China) wanted to attack the network by paying the miners to mine empty blocks indefinitely, they could effectively stop the network since the...

Good Life Seek @Good Life Seek 1760868878

isn't it that sooner or later some other small miner (not paid by a country) will be lucky to find a block and do include the transaction that big centralized miners or governments wanted to censor?

and so, "worst case" it would take a bit longer, maybe a few days instead of 10 minutes, but still any valid transaction from anyone could be included, no?

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