UPDATE on Gold, Oil their correlation and a zoom out on the US 10yrs..
Gold still in his monthly downtrend/consolidation after the peak at begging of the year, same as Oil. I am still of the opinion those have peaked and we'll not see
#oil over 110$ and Gold over 4800$. I expect correction on both even if every macro analyst is calling still for 200$ a barrel for this year.. not happening IMO.
Oil since end of April and May is stronger than what I presumed as situation with dollar liquidity is also making a difference. Oil isn't up because of real market demand but because of geopolitical situations.
The correlation between the two stills hold and to follow the white line I draw Gold have to be weaker than Oil. I believe it has to correct to 3900/4k before going up again from September or October, while geopolitical situation should be calmer (remember the mid election) and Oil price lower than now.
If zoomed out you can see why I expect another dip in this chart before a rebound meaning Gold strengthening against Oil..
Well speaking about zooming out, not sure how many are checking the last times the US 10yrs Bond was at those level..
And if you zoom out it looks even less nice (for stock market). The 4.5/5% level was a resistance in the 1959 and broke in '65 with a retest in '67 before skyrocketing to 16% with FED chair Volker in 1981..
In 1998 we touched it again as support first time, and broke it in 2002 and definitely in 2008, since then is a resistance.. should I remind you what happened in this years I mentioned..? Probably you know.
Funny funny times ahead.. until shit hit the "fun".
