Damus

Recent Notes

marcp profile picture
The salability of bitcoin across time and space changes the game. A call option for truth exists at instant speed at near zero cost. Rocks, nor anything else can do this.

The future is truth at the speed of light.
Born To Be Free · 2w
Sundays have become one of my favorite days to play (work). My husband and I replaced the word most people use for “work” with “play.” We literally play all day. Doing what we love. Having fu...
marcp profile picture
I might borrow that replacement of play. Something wrong in the mindset of "work" as if it is bad. Of course it is not bad, it is a modern cultural problem.

Nothing wrong with work, in fact it is essential and fulfilling, but it has been tainted with doing something against your will or bc you have to do it.

So, flipping it to play is great, OR opportunity, progress, building, etc.
Born To Be Free · 2w
Modern society just has a negative connotation associated with ‘work’ and my husband and I are both guilty as well. When we speak of it or hear it, the tone slightly changes, mindset shifts negative even though, like you said, work is a great thing and so fulfilling when you do what you love. ...
King Bababucci · 2w
I didnt even know it was possible but they say its unusual possibly fraudulent activity on my account cuz i wanna spend $900 Ive done prob hundreds of pretty high vol purchases on amazon so it makes no sense. Maybe AI scams or scammers using NUCs as currency is a real thing but cmon man lol
marcp profile picture
So what is the math saying about bitcoin price lagging behind silver and gold?

There is some correalation but it is pretty weak. Time will tell, but everyone saying this is how it works is not working from a strong historical example.

Mathematical Lag Analysis

To quantify lags between asset movements, I computed the cross-correlation of monthly % changes over lags from -12 to +12 months, finding the lag that maximizes the Pearson correlation coefficient. Positive lag means the first asset leads the second; negative means the second leads the first. (Calculation: For each lag ( k ), correlate series1 with series2 shifted by ( k ); select ( k ) with max correlation.)

BTC vs. Gold: Lag = -4 months (correlation = 0.21). Gold's moves tend to precede BTC's by ~4 months.

BTC vs. Silver: Lag = -6 months (correlation = 0.23). Silver's moves tend to precede BTC's by ~6 months.

Gold vs. Silver: Lag = 0 months (correlation = 0.79). No lag; they move synchronously.

These lags suggest precious metals (especially Silver) may act as leading indicators for BTC movements, though the correlations are weak (0.21-0.23), indicating limited predictive power. Gold and Silver's tight link (no lag, strong corr) reflects their shared commodity dynamics, while BTC's independence drives its higher volatility.

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