I think there’s going to be a ChatGPT moment for real estate. I don’t know if it happens in 1, 2, or 5 years, but I think it’s coming.

And when it does, it could completely change how people think about real estate as a store of value. We’ve already seen something similar happen with software. Things that used to take teams of engineers months to build can now be done in days, sometimes even seconds, because a general-purpose technology suddenly became capable of writing code. That changes the economics around the whole thing.

I think real estate will eventually have its own version of that moment. And when it happens, it doesn’t necessarily mean prices immediately go down. The bigger change will be in how people value it and where they want to store their capital.

For hundreds of years, people have treated real estate as one of the safest places to preserve wealth. Once that belief starts to weaken, new capital may stop flowing in and existing capital could slowly start moving elsewhere.

From that ChatGPT moment onward, maybe over the next decade or two, a lot of the monetary premium attached to real estate could gradually disappear. At that point, people may start questioning whether physical assets are really the best store of value anymore.

And that’s when they might start looking toward a completely different paradigm, like digital assets.

Politics basically became social media in the 2010s. Feels like by the late 2020s or early 2030s, politics will basically become Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.

Every noob around me is suddenly talking about stocks, sectors, memory plays, AI names, competitors… everyone’s throwing out tickers with total confidence like they’ve got some secret alpha.

Feels like people are speaking in certainties and acting way smarter than they probably are.

To me, the signs of a rotation out of equities and into Bitcoin are starting to show up. It’s not guaranteed, but it seems pretty clear.

Bitcoin looks like it’s getting close to a bottom, while equities could still push higher for a bit. Even so, it feels like we’re getting closer to a top there too.

Long-term, if data attribution comes (you get paid for the data that trains models), it creates a form of UBI where your own existence/thinking becomes monetizable.

Bitcoin could partially solve the housing problem. If people had a better store of value than real estate, they'd stop distorting housing prices. Housing would return to being a consumption asset priced by what people can actually afford. This is one of Bitcoin's most socially important functions.

US Retirees are net sellers of assets - they consume more than they produce, drawing down savings to fund their lives. When you have a top-heavy demographic pyramid, you get more sellers than buyers in financial markets. This is a secular headwind for equities and real estate lasting decades.

It’s a double-whammy. Older people living longer (more consumption needs) & fewer young people being born (fewer future buyers). Both sides accelerating the problem simultaneously.

Tokenization as a policy response. Part of why the SEC/CFTC are pushing tokenization is to let foreigners buy American equities more easily. If American boomers are going to be net sellers, then foreign capital can fill the buy side. Foreigners already love Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, but most can’t easily access US markets. Tokenization could fix that and that’s partly why crypto/tokenization is becoming a national priority.

“Trump accounts” and similar schemes like child savings accounts and tax-advantaged programs are funnels designed to create constant new flows into the equities market. The fine print is you can’t even buy individual stocks - only indices. It’s all about keeping the passive investing machine fed.

Fading Heroes 👤

A man should feel a bit powerful, superior, arrogant & confident. Everyone should feel like a hero in their own eyes and life. Every man who lived on this earth felt that before socials kicked in in different forms..

When an average man is bombarded with socials, he sees 100 different men at their best moments. It feels good when you see 100 men once a quarter or year… that’s what we had with festivals and large gatherings, etc… but if you do that on a daily basis - then you increasingly look at your life from a third-person lens invariably, and utter powerlessness kicks in…

Once the defining feature of a man is gone and once you think you’re not the hero in your life, then the cycle breaks, the void increases, and that void is up for grabs…

Who’s grabbing it?? Shadows.

bitcoin
cashu
nostr
bitchat
tor
torrent
signal


life is good

A simple way to sanity-check any asset you’re thinking of buying, whether it’s a rental property, commercial real estate, gold, whatever …

Look at the smartest person you know. A friend, colleague, relative, or even someone you follow online. Then ask yourself: if they had the same amount of money I do, would they buy this exact asset?

If the answer is no, pause. Spend at least a week thinking through why the smartest person you know has zero interest in it. That question alone will save you from a lot of bad purchases.