Tauri | Bitcoin (XBT)
· 4w
Because people operate in cycles. There’s a time when you need money for spending (exchange demand) and a time when you need money for saving (reserve demand). You see this in the Bitcoin cycle ever...
I have trouble accepting the ideia of macro cycles as inevitable.
Spending or saving is an individual choice: some people (or business) are spending, some are saving. You can even have cycles in your life, but not in sync with everyone else. It’s not a trend.
We can only have trends in a centralised game (and yes, we have that).
And that was one area where bitcoin (would have) changed everything. As it was decentralised (or the illusion of it), the only centralized rules were set and known in advance: halving and supply.
Btc/usd ratio (price) was, then, the equilibrium between demand (adoption) and supply (impacted by mining/halving).
This equilibrium got shaken every 4 years by halving (supply), which created a noticeable break in the trend.
Hence the idea of a 4 year cycle.
The latest (and worst) bull market, was a consequence of In the last halving, further reducing its imapct in the equilibrium, and fiat games (etf and mstr) entering the game: price descovery became muted, and has been as so since.
So, my view is that, in terms of price, since macro cycles don’t apply to btc, and fundamentals that drew adoption have been rewriten since last weekend, it’s all downhill from now.
Except if the “scripters” choose to pump btc.
Why would they?