Take that France.

📉 BTC/Gold: The "Fiat Noise" Filter

Tired of fiat volatility? I built this model to price Bitcoin in Troy Ounces of Gold to find the true signal. More below.



So What's the Strategy?

Identify the Overheated Zone: When the probability of a pullback (grey area) hits >85%, a correction in BTC/Gold is almost certain.

The Buy/Reset Zone: When probability drops <20%, the "cooling off" is over. This usually precedes a massive spike in BTC value relative to Gold.

Where are we now?

As of the January close, we are at 25%. We aren’t quite at the "historical stabilization" floor of 20% yet, but we are close.

So What's My Read?

I expect a steady state where 1 BTC ≈ 15 oz Gold. Instead of Bitcoin decoupling, expect them to march upward together. If Gold rises $1 in fiat, expect Bitcoin to rise roughly $15 to maintain the ratio.

To Recap:

We are approaching the long run average. The "fiat-denominated" rocket ship for both assets is likely just warming up. 🚀🌕

You can review the model here. Any question feel free to DM me or comment below.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTX7dJsi7OeWCLcmMKeYfejWByakhxEy8cb-LtvsF7Os35A5-OJti0mctqStsAJ-gEs4MJk7fL1U7-u/pubhtml?gid=668640181&single=true
#Bitcoin #Gold #SoundMoney #Macro

I'm a nerd, I like to do math. I did some math based on the data available.



Priced in Gold, Bitcoin's price in gold since inception is showing that Bitcoin intrinsic value priced in gold has reverted to the long term average using normal daily pricing distributions. Based on historical data, once the probability of a reversion approaches zero (area in yellow) a correction of Bitcoin priced in gold eventually follows suit. We're there now, feel free to review the link and any feedback is welcome.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTX7dJsi7OeWCLcmMKeYfejWByakhxEy8cb-LtvsF7Os35A5-OJti0mctqStsAJ-gEs4MJk7fL1U7-u/pubchart?oid=630716852&format=interactive