‘The Dor Brothers’ released this 3-minute "$200,000,000 AI movie" which half the internet can’t distinguish from a real Hollywood trailer.

The comments below the ‘movie’ on X are divided: some declare Hollywood dead, others insist craft can’t be automated.

What if both are wrong?

I think the debate is a distraction. AI video generation is not threatening Hollywood studios, it is threatening Hollywood’s workforce.

Why? Follow the money.

I did a quick search. VFX (visual effects) consume 20-25% of a blockbuster budget. If we talk about a $200mn film, that’s $40 to 50mn flowing to ±2mn VFX professionals globally in the market (worth $5-14bn depending on which estimate you trust)

AI video generation is compressing this cost structure by perhaps 90% over the next 3 to 5 years.

Do you think Hollywood studios will resist that?

I don’t think so.

They will embrace it, which will disrupt the production middle class: VFX houses, mid-tier production companies, and set builders. The infrastructure between “idea” and “screen” is impacted.

What is left?

When AI reduces production costs to ‘zero’ then the remaining MOATs are intellectual property, distribution, and the skill to make 100 million people watch the same movie at the same time.

Yonatan Dor (Founder of The Dor Brothers) already said Hollywood called him, not to compete but to hire him.

Overall, my thesis repeats itself. The remaining value migrates to what is uniquely human: sensing what to produce which comes from human vision, human creativity, human intuition.

While Hollywood and Netflix have some of the most creative creators under contract – there is an opportunity for unknown nobodies to compete – IF they have a better idea AND and use social platforms to hack attention and distribution.

Source and links in the comments.

Compared to other social platforms, how active are you on Nostr?

AGI arrives in 36 months. The AI labs building it will still face bankruptcy?

This is basically what Anthropic's CEO says. With the current approach, he predicts AGI (artificial general intelligence) in 1-3 years. Yet, he also says that he does not want to purchase the $1 Trillion in compute required to do exactly that.

In other words: Today, the technical scaling of AI is outpacing economic diffusion. Which is of course a massive structural risk.

The AI models are improving EXPONENTIALLY while encountering enterprise procurement cycles LINEARLY.

This creates a temporal cash-flow trap.

If a frontier lab overestimates corporate adoption velocity by 12 months, they have $100bn in CapEx that will force them immediately into insolvency.

Which means AI labs currently (must or should) under-procure compute relative to technological progress.

Which creates an artificial constraint on how fast AI could actually progress.

The first question now is:

If a handful of companies are making trillion-dollar bets on a technology that could reshape civilization, but their survival hinges on perfectly timing sluggish enterprise adoption in an unpredictable macro environment, who actually bears the cost if their forecasts are wrong? The executives and investors who placed the bets, or taxpayers who will be told it's too dangerous to let them collapse?

And from a different perspective:

Should the AI companies who are building the most consequential technology in human history be able to go bankrupt? Or does that risk force us to accept a new and different arrangement?

AI cannot make novel discoveries. But AI can connect dots across knowledge humans are incapable of seeing and this is sufficient for a lot of progress.

Breathing concsiously is meditation. You calm your nervous system. You lower stress. This is the requirement for health.

There comes the weekend, you have all kinds of plans, then your son gets fever. All priorities shift, all you want is him to be healthy. Cooked a great chicken soup. Happy that he ate some spoons. Everyone, have a nice weekend, healthy children, and a happy life full of love.

Prove me wrong but it is a disgrace Polymarket is offering such markets. Betting on whether BTC is UP or DOWN within minutes. Nobody can predict this. It feels illegal to even offer this. Zero shame. Zero conscience.

Never before in our history have we humans possessed such an abundance of knowledge, skills, and means to shape a better world. Yet, instead of looking toward the future with hope, a great sense of fear is spreading among many.