good take but I think you underestimate how many people are checking out of the dystopian centralized instant- dopamine driven circus and are looking for where they could deal with likeminded people and engage in p2p activity and make sustainable living through that. I believe they will come and converge on nostr eventually.
the big problem of current nostr is the fragmentation and the poor discovery. I've been on nostr for a while and I only heard npubs like
@Oshi (推し) and
@Leathermint today when I was messing with my project and saw that they have a decent amount of incoming zaps and people I follow follow them.
We just need tooling that lets people discover their people as opposed to the default follow-packs that are stuffed with bots and npubs that've been long dead. Or relaying on the established npubs reposting valuable stuff.