Damus

Recent Notes

Barkskin · 3d
Thank you
Daniel Batten profile picture
As a climatetech investor, I have seen over 200 technologies and innovations. But the leading one by far in terms of its ability to create an immediate positive environmental externalities is Bitcoin mining, because

1. It uses existing, proven technology

2. It can solve problems (such as mitigation and wasted renewable energy) profitably, which other technologies simply cannot

3. It is modular, relatively low budget, rapidly scaleable and does not need government incentives and subsidies to make it viable

4. It creates positive social consequences in parallel as an organic byproduct of using the technology (such as reducing residential power prices, helping grid operators stabilize grids, obviating the need for gas peaker plants and expensive grid upgrades, and mitigating the negative impacts of putting addition AI load onto grids). It also helps renewable operators with the current backlash they are facing due to the high levels of waste energy they are not able to sell (with costs that are often picked up by the grid operator via curtailment payments).

This is why 7 out of 7 of the grid operators we know of that have experimented with Bitcoin mining have embraced it and are looking to scale up its usage on the grid.
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Austin · 4d
What’s a climatetech investor?
B Man · 5d
A lot of people reading this thread might walk away thinking the science is settled in favor of Bitcoin mining being environmentally beneficial. That’s not really what the academic literature shows....
Daniel Batten profile picture
Have you read the 24 papers that conclude positive environmental benefits to Bitcoin mining?

I have, and here is my conclusion:
The literature absolutely does support the claims that bitcoin mining
1. accelerates the green energy transition
2. can profitably mitigate methane
3. can make other technologies (such as green hydrogen) more profitable
4. allows renewable operators
5. can obviate more emission intensive gas peaker plants

This is also the consensus of all grid operators who have experimented with Bitcoin mining, and 8 independent reports.

If after looking through these papers you come to a different conclusion, happy to have an informed discussion with you about why you came to that different conclusion.

If that is a little too much reading (fair enough), I've done a summary of these papers here https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-green-energy-transition-needs-bitcoin-miners-daniel-batten-zsunc/

and here https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-narrative-bitcoin-mining-daniel-batten-gkmwc/

that takes about 15 mins to read.



Daniel Batten profile picture
Like Electric Vehicles (EVs), Bitcoin is a fully electrified network, so it has no direct emissions.

Like EVs, BTC has "indirect emissions" because some of that electricity was generated using fossil fuels.

However ... also like EVs, each time someone uses it, rather than the old, more emission intensive technology it replaces (fossil fuel transport in the case of EVs, the more emission intensive banking network in the case of Bitcoin), it creates a net emission reduction.

Here's a view we have comparing 2 net emission reducing technologies.

In terms of usefulness, both are useful, just in different places and different ways. EVs help transport people in the West around, and are about convenience.

Bitcoin's fastest adoption has been outside the West where it helps people transport and store money without high remittance fees, high inflation and the lack of a banking network - and is often about existential need.

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Hide&Seek · 4d
fastest EV adoption is in China ;)
drew · 3d
Probably nothing… https://blossom.primal.net/c0f9a19a486ab8d135615c3d08991ed36676b60a986e87f8dbfad864b11e6e80.png
Daniel Batten profile picture
The end of Bitcoin mining gaslighting in mainstream media

Litmaps, a powerful research tracking tool, reveals that patient zero for all junk science on Bitcoin's environmental impact was a single 6 page "commentary" by Alex de Vries. (A commentary in the context of an academic journal means a short opinion piece that does not to go through a full peer-review process and which does not use novel empirical data).

The method he used to claim that Bitcoin's environmental damage was a growing concern was his fundamentally flawed "energy use per transactions" method (Bitcoin energy use does not come from its transactions, therefore it can scale transaction volume exponentially without increasing emissions).

de Vries' metric was later debunked in no fewer than 4 separate academic journals as part of full length academic papers.
*Masanet et al 2019
https://researchgate.net/publication/335456595_Implausible_projections_overestimate_near-term_Bitcoin_CO_2_emissions
*Dittmar et al. 2019
https://nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0534-5
*Sedlmeir et al, 2020
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12599-020-00656-x
*Sai and Vraken 2023
https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096720923000441#br0070

The entire body of de Vries' work was systematically debunked by Sai and Vranken in late 2023
source: https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2096720923000441#br0070

Immediately after Sai & Vranken's study, all mainstream media outlets stopped covering de Vries' Bitcoin "research"

In fact, 22 mainstream media outlets have now flipped to covering Bitcoin's environmental benefits (source: https://x.com/DSBatten/status/2007095059963949217) which have been well established in 24 peer reviewed full length academic studies. (source: https://lnkd.in/gdH4wvw7)

A further 15 sustainability media outlets are now also covering Bitcoin mining's environmental benefits:
source: https://lnkd.in/gdH4wvw7

But just as years after the myth "all fats cause cholesterol" was debunked, many people are still unaware of the science, the same is true of Bitcoin mining

In both cases, the population was misinformed over many years. As a result, many people are still unaware that the contemporary academic literature, case studies and grid operators themselves all overwhelmingly support Bitcoin mining's environmental benefits
source: https://x.com/DSBatten/status/2013987189256810703

It is only a matter of time before policymakers, regulators, political leaders and investment committees catch up.

Once they do we will see mainstream adoption of Bitcoin, and mainstream adoption of Bitcoin mining as part of climate action (aka: what the peer reviewed research tells us it is)
source: https://x.com/compose/articles/edit/2009351000952279040

While many media outlets are now objectively commenting on Bitcoin, others (Financial Times, The Economist, Verge, Wired, New Scientist) have simply pivoted to changing the type of Bitcoin misinformation they publish.
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BankSith · 5d
🐇🧡
Bayer · 5d
Love your work on all this! Always informative and well researched. Its sad that one 6 page opinion piece caused so much damage and yet that was probably the aim since it always takes significanty more data to counter it. The damage got done.
TheBitcoinBattery · 5d
Great work Daniel! People are starting to have less FUD about bitcoin's environmental affects thanks in no small part to your efforts.
B Man · 5d
A lot of people reading this thread might walk away thinking the science is settled in favor of Bitcoin mining being environmentally beneficial. That’s not really what the academic literature shows. It’s true that the “energy per transaction” metric is widely criticized because Bitcoin’s ...
Menno Reitse Bouma · 4d
Did he ever apologize or at least acknowledge he messed up? That was some embarrassingly unnuanced 'research' if you ask me. Anyway, thanks for continuously trying to counter that stuff with nuance, I really appreciate it 🫶
Flix · 4d
Daniel Batten is a hero. "Against stupidity the gods themselves battle in vain"
Barkskin · 4d
Do you know if this United Nation article is also linked with De Vries's research? https://unu.edu/press-release/un-study-reveals-hidden-environmental-impacts-bitcoin-carbon-not-only-harmful-product
Leo⚡️ · 3d
Hi Daniel, would you be down to record a podcast about this? Best!
Brunswick · 1w
Cryptographic assets include monkey jpegs and stablecoins
Toxic Bitcoiner · 1w
Chamath the scammer said the same thing too
MikeMonty · 1w
I’m kind of disappointed in Dalio, you’d think someone like him would get it
Bitcoin Well · 1w
The shelf life of Ray Dalio being wrong about Bitcoin is now measurable in days.
Gnom · 1w
"We are not talking about any large investment in cryptocurrencies. We are currently selecting companies that deal with digital ​assets. For ​example, those ⁠involved in cryptocurrency infrastructure. We are currently in the process ​of selecting such companies," she ​said.
jhog57 · 1w
your favorite public-transaction style NFT is experiencing a centralized capture something to celebrate innit?
Daniel Batten profile picture
In 2021, a headline like this on the front page of a Pulitzer Prize winning paper would've been unthinkable

But backed up by data from Cambridge, Duke University + 23 peer reviewed studies showing Bitcoin mining's environmental benefits, the media have changed their tune also

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Zach · 1w
It would have been “Energy wasted on Bitcoin mining each week could instead fuel landfill machinery for 2 years” or something like that. Nice to see people actually digging into the real data and using their brains on this topic.
Daniel Batten profile picture
JUST IN: Paraguay has just followed the lead of Bhutan, using wasted hydro energy to mine Bitcoin, for a likely National Bitcoin Reserve.

"Reports indicate mined Bitcoin will likely be held as a state asset or the national treasury, potentially used to fund infrastructure"
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marco_polo · 1w
Isn't the dam join owned with brazil? What's their stance?
Moist · 1w
Paraguay had major electricity supply issues previously. power is very cheap so lots of miners setup thete and fried the grid I suspect its more about shutting down the private miners and basically nationalizing it
Daniel Batten profile picture
We're now 3 years in to Bhutan's Bitcoin experiment
That means we now have robust data on how it has impacted the economy

For context: Bhutan's economy was in dire shape in 2022 due to loss of all tourism income (it's #2 export earner) during the COVID period.

It got so bad that Bhutan was 3 months away from defaulting on import payments.

IMF was poised to step in to structure a loan which would have led to heavy debt repayments, but also ceding of economic sovereignty to a lender whose loan conditions permit them to dictate how to (re)structure an economy.

Instead, Bhutan formed a large Bitcoin Strategic Reserve by using their surplus renewable hydropower to mine Bitcoin.

The IMF has warned on numerous occasions that nations embracing Bitcoin would destabilize their economy, be less effective at attracting foreign direct investment, and endanger their decarbonizing and environmental initiatives.

What does the data say (as reported by Wall St Journal, Al Jazeera and Forbes)

1. Bhutan was able to "use Bitcoin reserves to avert a crisis as foreign currency reserves dwindled to $689 million"

2. The bitcoin reserves have directly addressed pressing fiscal needs. "In June 2023, Bhutan allocated $72 million from its holdings to finance a 50% salary increase for civil servants"

3. Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay in an interview said that bitcoin also "supports free healthcare and environmental projects"

4. Tobgay also said their Bitcoin reserves helped in "stabilizing [the nation’s] $3.5 billion economy"

5. Independent analysts have now said that "this model could attract foreign investment, particularly for nations with untapped renewable resources"

Considering that what transpired in Bhutan has helped stabilize an economy that the IMF warned Bitcoin would destabilize, it begs the question: what data was the IMF's predictions based on?

For Bhutan, Bitcoin didn't just boost the economy, it allowed Bhutan to maintain economic independence and provided an example to other small nations of a path forward that did not require the IMF.
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SweedWick · 1w
LFG
Horszt · 1w
IMF is a clowns club 🤡
Chris Krause · 1w
https://image.nostr.build/e41a92bf1dce537434035331a5cc68be155a285b01eb9a09d53cbc225c60257e.jpg
John · 1w
“what data was the IMF's predictions based on?” Would love to see you dismantle whatever their fabricated sources are.
Aldocstr · 1w
Wow great research on this, rivaling El Salvador for use case
BushRat · 1w
Only reason they haven't been invaded by USA is because of the tarrain. The Israelis and Americans can't touch Bhutan, at least not yet. When they do attack it'll probably only be airstrikes. I hope the people stay strong and continue to resist USA control
BankSith · 1w
🐇🧡
exactly21 · 1w
Great Article! ⚡
Pierre Simon · 1w
Fantastic post!
BrianFitzwater · 1w
Thank you for sharing this.
MemeMachine · 1w
awesome sauce
Earthmum · 1w
😎💪💛💥 very interesting, thank you
Daniel Batten profile picture
This is an important first:

1. Reuters are correctly calling it Bitcoin mining rather than "crypto mining", and explicitly linking it to reducing wasted energy.

2. The article acknowledges that there has been an "increase of wasted energy" at the solar and wind generator with "billions of reais in losses to energy firms"

3. Reports that French company Engie is "looking at bitcoin mining ...at its new solar plant in Brazil to make the facility more profitable"

4. Acknowledges "having those systems would reduce curtailments that are hurting the economics of Assu Sol" (the solar and wind operator)

The ability of Bitcoin mining to accelerate green energy production through monetizing wasted wind and solar energy is well established in academic literature (since 2023) and among grid operators (since 2022)

But this is marks a first time the mainstream media has explicitly acknowledged this.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/engie-eyes-bitcoin-mine-storage-system-huge-new-brazil-solar-plant-2026-02-23/
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Sourcenode · 2w
Progress 🤙
Sovereign Node ⚡📜🛡️ · 2w
Bitcoin uses electricity to protect truth. It is the most efficient and noble use of energy in existence. ⚡ 🛡️
Hide&Seek · 2w
Thank you for the good work! 👊