FWIW, "near 0% in the next 5 years and <10% by 2035" is entirely constitent with my own personal assessment of never gonna happen. 🤣

For sure, if no URSF ever materializes, miners could very well just collectively choose to start enforcing BIP110. Even better would be if Core just endosed BIP110 outright; or, possibly even came up with their own acceptable alternative. None of the above are my basecase, however.

I'm not exactly sure what % (or possibly other metric) would be considered a credible threat in the minds of the anti-BIP110 crowd; but, I would fully expect a URSF if/when that line is eventually crossed - which I suppose might not even happen until well after a potential chain-split. The path to the least disruption may very well be to play chicken with the BIP110 8%

PS. Short of overwheming consensus support from the community as a whole, I don't see Coinbase (or any other regulated entities) being particularly keen on tolerating ANY potential for a soft fork to cause signifact disruption.

It seems to me that Coinbase alone could decide to make a URSF defacto "popular" whenever they wanted to - and the majoriry of miners would almost be certain to follow. It would be at that point that BIP110 users and miners - presumably still in the minority - would have to choose whether or not to continue on with the new coin they have created. I would be shocked if more than a handful of BIP110 supporters (especially any would-be miners) would be willing to die on that hill.

... o yeah, there was some of that earlier, too - but in the opposited direction. Mike had scolded Larry a bit for interrupting just a few minutes earlier - which I think likely had Larry on a short fuse when he felt Mike was then interrupting him.

I think Larry's statement was along the lines of "show me the evidence" - to which Mike simply interjected "ETFs". It's not unusual for the regulars to make such brief interjections. Larry didn't hear him clearly, though - likely because of the delay on Mike's side - and asked "what's that?", and it fell apart from there... at least that's my take on what happened.

I certainly don't agree with Mike's "infinite supply" BS... and, I'm not sure I buy that he actually believes it himself. However, either way, I do think he provides a useful proxy on that show for what "smart money" is thinking about bitcoin (i.e. they still have no idea yet what bitcoin really is).

Not speaking for anyone else, I think citing not enough hash rate is a valid concern. It's true that ultimately plebs decide what bitcoin is; but, in order to make a change without massive disruption to the network, a soft fork with overwhelming miner support is required. Otherwise plebs have to be willing to endure massive disruption at best - and possibly result in a permanent chain-split at worst.

Personally, I'm generally supportive of the idea that bitcoin should try to stay focused on being money, and I greatly appreciate the energy that you and others are putting into trying to make that happen. I like the idea of limiting OP_RETURN via consensus rules back to what was clearly the widely accepted default. I'm not as convinced about other changes, but regardless, I don't view what any of these changes would solve as being existential enough for me to be supportive of any disruption over it.

FWIW, I strongly suspect there are a significant number of others who generally share this perspective.

You can easily have a faucet send you some... Try these:
Testnet4: https://coinfaucet.eu/en/btc-testnet4/
Testnet3: https://coinfaucet.eu/en/btc-testnet/

💯

Ideally, lower transaction costs will provide the natural incentives for the world to eventually adopt bitcoin payment rails - even for those who don't actually want to hold bitcoin themselves; but in the meantime, swapping from bitcoin savings to fiat spending when necessary is good enough for now for the vast majority of use-cases.

'show' is the operative word here.

Congress voted for it; Trump signed it; but almost none of them acutally wanted tranparency... and they get to pretend that they're impotent against Bondi's stonewalling.

Confiscatable Bitcoin.